2 Ways to Improve Decision Making

I often see many postings on social media asking for advice about making big decisions related to career or finance. I think the main purpose of these postings are to get various opinions before they make decisions. Then I got curious how having multiple suggestions or opinions from strangers in the social media can help us making better decisions. 

After browsing a few articles about decision making on the Internet, I found an article, “3 ways to improve your decision making” by Walter Frick, published in Harvard Business Review in Jan 2018. The author originally discussed 3 ways to improve decision making; 

1. Be less certain

2. Ask “How often does that typically happen?”

3. Think probabilistically – and learn some basic probability. 

I assume many of you have some level of education in probability like myself. 

Thus, I will focus on the first 2 ways to improve our decision making in this blog. 

#1. Be less certain. 

We may not be well aware of this, but overconfidence is a bias many of us have. Even Nobel-prize-winning psychologist, Daniel Kahneman once said he would like to eliminate his bias of overconfidence if he had a magic wand. Many of us strongly believe that certain choice will lead to certain outcome. But in reality, this may not be as consistently true as we think. 

For example, many physicians who work for large health care systems as employees believe having a private practice is too difficult. Even I used to think I would work for an academic institution and never imagined myself to be a physician entrepreneur. Interestingly, when I finished my training, I could not find an established job that could offer me flexibility, autonomy and the combination of clinical work, research and leadership opportunity that I was looking for. Fortunately, I was able to create my own practice with my colleagues’ and mentors’ support. Later, I was offered to join a leadership position at an academic program while maintaining my private practice. Now, even there are many benefits with working at a large academic institution, it is not preferable for me to become an employed physician with limited autonomy and flexibility. 

Even when you think you know the most likely outcome from a certain choice, try to be less certain about your prediction, and be more open for other possible outcomes. This can definitely broaden your choices and possible outcomes. 

#2. Ask “How often does that typically happen?”

The original article encourages us to try to get away from “inside view” where the decision is biased by our own analysis and take the “outside view” where we take a look at others’ outcomes in similar cases. This does not mean to compare our outcomes to others or simply follow others’ footsteps. Rather this suggests to be open for other choices or outcomes which we may not be familiar or comfortable with. 

Many of us are familiar with our own experience of making a poor decision by focusing on our own “inside view” too much. Especially when our emotions run high with negative feelings such as anxiety or frustration, we are not able to make healthy or logical decisions. Even there is   neuroscience-based explanation why we are not able to make good decisions when our emotions are high either negatively or positively. The outcomes from the decisions we make focusing on “inside view” can be predictable and limited, which may not give us the outcome we want. Sometimes, we don’t even think of other possible outcomes if we only focus on “inside view.” 

When we take “outside view” looking at other’s outcomes in similar cases, we get to have different perspective of possible outcomes. This is similar to have “brain storming” sessions when we look for other possible options. However, this does not mean to follow others’ advice blindly. It is necessary to consider if the others’ outcomes are desirable in our own unique situation and our own purpose. For example, taking a locum job may be a good option for some physicians, but it would not be a good choice for you when I have stable job and young kids to take care of at home. 

Another point to keep in mind when we take “outside view” is WHICH outside views we take. If we are burnout and looking for a way to change our lives, but surrounded by people who are burnout and feel stuck, frustrated, and unfulfilled, most of our “outside view” would look very similar to our own. If we are burnout but surrounded by people who recovered from burnout and finding a way to create lives with fulfillment, satisfaction, intention and purpose, we can learn how to find a way to get out of our own burnout and create similar lives. This is why it is important to take “which” outside view we take. 

In summary, I offer 2 ways to improve decision making, 1) Be less certain, and 2) Ask “how often does that happen?” by getting away from “inside view” and taking the right “outside view.” Try this strategy when you make a decision next time and let me know if it is helpful. 

Have a great week!  :)